Basically, this graph (which is difficult to read, sorry about that) shows the price development for three categories of forest biomass in Norway since 2002.  The red line indicates the price of what was previously considered “low value” biomass – biomass which the graph clearly shows, is not really “low value” any more, since it has caught up with the other categories. The presenter attributed this shift to the emergence of bioenergy as a viable market opportunity in Norway, and I have no reason to object to this analysis. This is one of the obvious points that bioenergy protagonists like to make – bioenergy can literally transform waste into a valuable resource, an argument I thought was nicely summarized with this graph

I don’t know how far-fetched the notion of space-based* energy by 2080 is, but the idea seems quite typical in the tradition of ‘technical fixes’ to complex problems. Also, is it possible that utopian visions of this type – formulated outside the hectic realms and quarrels of day-to-day politics could serve as a kind of false security, a pretext for doing nothing, thus becoming counter-productive? After all, what is the point of changing our energy consumption patterns today? Engineers will surely save us soon, anyway – don’t worry!

Its quite easy to make fun of such forecasts, of course. That being said – this book by George Friedman is actually a quite readable piece of airport litterature (spoiler: keep an eye out for a stealth Japanese military base…. on the  moon!) Have a nice flight!

*) More precisely he talks about space based solar power.

Are you interested in fighting climate change, preventing energy wars, revitalizing the economy, and generally making a transition to a sustainable future? If you say yes to one or more of these questions, then Sajed Kamal’s little book The Renewable Revolution (2011 – brand new!) published on earthscan could be for you. Effectively being no more than 100 pages long, the task Kamal sets out to achieve certainly does not lack ambition. In the preface he states:

The Renewable revolution is an invitation to action. It charts a transition from an obsolete, destructive and unsustainable nonrenewable energy path to a renewable energy path of innovation, revitalization, abundance and peace. From a holistic perspective  – interweaving technology, economics, science, enviroment, philosophy, history, spirituality and politics – this book illustrates how we got into an energy crisis, and how we can get out of it (p. xxiii)

Thus, we should at least work up a decent sweat during this read! My reason for acquiring this book, was first and foremost its promise to deliver practical solutions to a series of problems which I think we in many ways have a fairly firm theoretical understanding of. However, when “our” insight is to be translated into more tangible action and policy, the tendency seems less clear. The answers become fuzzy, probably for good reasons.

Enter Kamal. His first task is to convince the reader that societies fuelled by renewables are within reach today. He starts with a short chapter on the sun, where he among other things describes this little video in great detail:

Turning more practical, he identifies a number of technologies, which according to him are ready to be rolled out at large scales throughout the globe. These are pholtovoltaics, wind turbines, hydroelectric systems, solar collectors for hot water, solar greenhouses, solar cookers and biogas plants. Looking into the future, he also identifies hydrogen fuel cells, biofuels and geothermal systems as important technologies. His selections are fair enough, I guess, although a bit arbitrary in the pleathora of technologies out there. He goes on to give the reader a “crash-course” in each of these technologies, before he uses well over 20 pages showing pictures of these technologies in use. So now we know – they do exist.

His second task is twofold – first, he is to explain to the reader why we need to convert to a sustainable renewable lifestyle – and second, he needs to explain how. In explaining why, Kamal focuses greatly on the costs of allowing the non-renewable energy path to prevail. He shows how the increasingly aggresive quest for oil around the world has staggering external costs, for instance the costs of fighting wars in the middle east, fuelling the american army and adopting to eventual climate changes. The costs of Hurricane Katrina, for example, Kamal sees a direct expenses of being on the  non-renewable energy path. The science behind some of his arguments are probably debatable, but he gets the point across fairly well – the prices of fossil fuels by far exceeds the actual price of diesel and gasoline at your local gas station, and most of these hidden costs are highly subsidized by the (American) state.

Allright. It is good to be reminded of these things, but now for the really difficult stuff; the answers, the solutions. This is where we usually get a more shakey response, but Kamal has promised bang for the buck. Does the book deliver? Well, the author has ideas, I’ll give him that. He calls for a global moratorium on activities “further entrenching the non-renewable energy path” (how do we achieve such a global deal? How do we define which activities we can/cannot do? How do we deal with vested interests in these questions?). Further he calls for massive investments in research on renewables, equivalent to the “new deal” – a “green” deal – something with the intensity of the Manhattan project (the US program to build the nuclear bomb), but initiated by a socially and enviromentally responsible public-private partnership, rather than as a comand-control centralized state activity(How would such partnerships emerge? What should we do to encourage such partnerships? Which renewables deserves most funding? etc). In other words: in terms of policy, Kamal is fuzzy. He provides some visions, some pretty general ideas, but the extremely difficult and very practical path of connecting today’s political and industrial reality with these visions remains in the dark.

While providing these visions, Kamal also upholds a somewhat naïve faith in some ancient universal wisdom, which we seem to have lost on our way towards the non-renewable energy path. He writes:

Our own human ancestors had the holistic wisdom to understand the meaning of sustainability that we need to live within the limits of the Earth’s natural resources and our renewable capacities. Rooted in that wisdom was a foundation of what we have come to consetpualize as ‘sustainable development’ (p.83)

A quick look at a book like collapse by Jarred Diamond should at least nuance this impression.

The title of the books final chapter, turning visions into action, indicates that Kamal intends to deal with my concerns. Instead, however, he raises his voice and asks the individual to step up.  The reader is definently given some pointers about possible paths of action. We are told to use lighting and heating selectively in our homes, to replace our incandescent lightbulbs, to recycle glass and plastic, minimize packaging on gifts, to consider eating vegetarian food rather than meat, to buy toys without batteries, insulate our homes, to stop using stand-by mode on electronic equipment, ride a bike, use collective transportation or alternative fuels, to participate in initiatives lik ‘earth hour’ and to read and distribute books like ‘50 simple things you can do to save the earth‘. Further, Kamal stresses the importance of educating people as well as the powers of a good example.

While very good examples of positive individual action, there seems to be a massive gap between the visions formulated, and the prescribed action. Throughout the book there are small hints telling us that the non-renewable energy path is heavilly incorporated in global power structures with deep historical roots. In his final analysis, however, the difficulties related to the political and industrial spheres are left behind, and the responsibility of saving the planet is firmly placed in the hands of the “uneducated” public and consumers. While consealed behind many analogies and poetic descriptions of Gaia and the sun, the basic analysis does not seem to differ much from a straight-forward economic knowledge-deficit model.

In other words: I think we are still short of a credible manifesto for the renewable revolution.

Update: Check out Henrik Karlstrøms coments on the article over at his blog!

I was happy to learn that the article The global warming of climate science: Climategate and the construction of scientific facts by Marianne Ryghaug and me has finally been printed in the 24th volume of  International Studies in the Philosophy of Science. Unfortunately it is not yet available online (will hopefully be soon), and due to embargo issues I can’t post it here for some time. Annyways; feel free to get in touch if you are interested in a copy